digital-anomaly / spike ratio
Connectivity Disruption Index
Traffic ratio vs. baseline (1.0); early signature of censorship, shutdowns, and instability.
Methodology: Observed traffic index divided by region baseline.
Daily index aggregated monthly; baseline = trailing normal.
Caveats:
- Baseline drift over long horizons
- VPN substitution can mask true disruption
- Aggregation hides sub-national variation
μ=1.288 · σ=0.646 · n=72 · range=[1.001, 3.556]
| Region | Latest | z-score | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 1.08 | +1.576 | |
| RU Russia | 1.064 | +0.675 | |
| DE Germany | 1.048 | -0.225 | |
| BR Brazil | 1.053 | +0.056 | |
| PK Pakistan | 1.045 | -0.394 | |
| JP Japan | 1.022 | -1.689 |